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cobalt holdings ipo 2025

Cobalt Holdings Set for London’s Biggest Mining IPO Since 2022: A $230M Industry Shake-Up

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Biggest Mining IPO Since 2022

The London Stock Exchange is poised for a major mining market revival in 2025, as Cobalt Holdings prepares to launch what may be the largest mining IPO since 2022. With a funding target of $230 million (£174 million), this listing signals a renewed investor appetite for critical minerals—especially cobalt, a key ingredient in electric vehicle (EV) batteries and renewable energy technologies.

A Strategic Bet on Cobalt’s Future

Cobalt Holdings isn’t your typical mining company. It doesn’t mine cobalt—it buys, stores, and trades it. The company plans to use IPO proceeds to purchase 6,000 tonnes of physical cobalt from commodities giant Glencore under a six-year supply agreement.

This positions Cobalt Holdings as a low-cost, physical holding vehicle for investors seeking direct exposure to cobalt prices, rather than the operational risks of mining.

Backed by Industry Giants

The IPO has drawn heavyweight backing:

  • Glencore will supply the cobalt and take a 10% stake in Cobalt Holdings.

  • Anchorage Capital, a U.S. investment firm, is also on board, bringing the combined insider ownership to 20.5%.

These partnerships offer both supply security and strong financial backing—critical factors in a volatile commodities market.

Global Market Timing

The launch couldn’t be more timely:

  • The Democratic Republic of Congo, which supplies over 75% of the world’s cobalt, recently imposed a four-month export moratorium, causing short-term supply concerns.

  • Although cobalt prices have slumped since their 2022 highs, long-term demand remains strong due to growing needs in EVs, smartphones, and grid storage systems.

Cobalt Holdings is positioning itself as a strategic storage and trading platform ready to benefit from any price rebound.

‍ A Seasoned Leadership Team

CEO Jake Greenberg, co-founder of uranium investment company Yellow Cake PLC, brings experience in managing commodities as investable assets rather than operating mines. His model emphasizes transparency, low costs, and physical backing—an approach that’s proven popular with institutional investors.

What This Means for Investors

If successful, Cobalt Holdings will become a new kind of commodity player—more like a cobalt ETF than a traditional mining firm. It gives shareholders direct cobalt exposure without operational or geopolitical risk from mining jurisdictions.

With growing focus on securing critical minerals for the energy transition, this IPO could pave the way for more listings centered on strategic resource investment rather than extraction.

Final Thoughts

The $230 million IPO by Cobalt Holdings is more than a financial event—it’s a signal of where the industry is headed. As clean energy and battery demand surge, innovative models like this will shape the future of resource investment. If you’re tracking the evolution of the mining sector or the critical minerals supply chain, this is one IPO to watch.

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Rio Tinto’s Upcoming Mining Projects in 2025: A Global Overview

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Upcoming Mining Projects in 2025

As of May 2025, Rio Tinto is advancing several significant mining projects across Australia, the United States, and Argentina. These initiatives span various minerals, including lithium, copper, and iron ore, aligning with the company’s strategy to support the global energy transition and meet increasing demand for critical minerals.

Australia

Rhodes Ridge Project (Western Australia)

Located in the Eastern Pilbara region, the Rhodes Ridge project is one of the world’s largest undeveloped iron ore deposits. Rio Tinto, in partnership with Wright Prospecting Pty Ltd, is progressing a pre-feasibility study (PFS) with an initial capacity of up to 40 million tonnes per year. The PFS is expected to be completed by the end of 2025, with first ore anticipated by the end of the decade.

Brockman Syncline 1 (Pilbara, Western Australia)

As part of Rio Tinto’s Pilbara iron ore operations, the Brockman Syncline 1 project is set to commence production in the first half of 2025. This development is part of a broader strategy to replace depleting mines and maintain production capacity in the region.

United States

Kennecott Underground Project (Utah)

At the Kennecott copper mine in Utah, Rio Tinto has approved $498 million in funding for underground development in the North Rim Skarn area. Production is slated to begin in 2025, with an expected ramp-up over two years to deliver approximately 250,000 tonnes of additional mined copper over the next decade.

Resolution Copper Project (Arizona)

The Resolution Copper project, a joint venture with BHP, aims to develop a significant copper mine in Arizona. However, the project faces legal challenges from the San Carlos Apache Tribe, who oppose the land transfer due to the site’s cultural significance. A U.S. federal judge has temporarily halted the land exchange, with a ruling expected by May 14, 2025.

Argentina

Rincon Lithium Project (Salta Province)

Rio Tinto is investing $2.5 billion to expand the Rincon lithium project, located in Argentina’s Salta Province. The expansion aims to increase production capacity to 60,000 tonnes per year of battery-grade lithium carbonate, with construction scheduled to begin in mid-2025 and first production expected in 2028.

Arcadium Lithium Acquisition

Rio Tinto is in the process of acquiring Arcadium Lithium, a company with significant lithium brine assets in Argentina. The acquisition, valued at nearly $11 billion, is expected to close by mid-2025, pending regulatory approvals.

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Upcoming Mining Construction Projects in Western Australia for 2025

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Overview of Western Australia‘s Mining Industry

Western Australia is a pivotal player in the global mining sector, boasting some of the richest mineral resources on the planet. As one of the world’s leading producers of various minerals, including iron ore, gold, and nickel, the state contributes significantly to both the Australian economy and the global supply chain. According to recent statistics, mining accounts for approximately 30% of Western Australia’s GDP, underscoring its crucial role in bolstering the local and national economy.

The region’s mineral wealth is complemented by a strong infrastructure network, which facilitates efficient extraction and transportation. This network has seen significant investments in road, rail, and port facilities, enhancing the ability to respond to growing global demands. Furthermore, the mining industry employs thousands of individuals in Western Australia, directly and indirectly supporting local communities and contributing to regional development. In 2021, it was reported that over 120,000 people were employed in the mining sector, showcasing its importance as a key employment driver.

Over the years, the mining industry in Western Australia has undergone substantial transformations, evolving from manual labor practices to embracing advanced technological innovations. This modernization has led to increased efficiency, reduced operational costs, and improved safety standards. Noteworthy advancements in machinery and equipment, including automated mining vehicles and digital monitoring systems, have further positioned Western Australia as a leader in mining innovation.

As the demand for minerals continues to rise globally, Western Australia stands poised for future expansion in the mining industry. The upcoming mining construction projects scheduled for 2025 will not only bolster production capabilities but also create additional job opportunities across various sectors. In conclusion, the significance of the mining industry in Western Australia cannot be overstated; it remains a cornerstone of economic prosperity and a driving force for sustainable development in the region.

Key Mining Projects Scheduled for 2025

Western Australia continues to cement its reputation as a leading hub for mining construction, with numerous projects slated to commence in 2025. These projects span various minerals, showcasing the diverse investment landscape and the evolving nature of the mining sector. One noteworthy project is the expansion of the Iron Ore facility at Pilbara, which focuses on increasing production capacity in response to the growing global demand. The investment is estimated to reach $300 million, emphasizing the significance of iron as a core component in steel and stainless steel manufacturing.

Another significant undertaking involves the development of the lithium extraction facility in the Goldfields region. As electric vehicle technology gains traction worldwide, the expectation for lithium supply surges, prompting investment forecasts of around $200 million. This project aims to enhance operational efficiencies through the incorporation of innovative processing technologies, which highlights an ongoing trend toward automation and sustainability in the industry.

A prominent player in the industry, BHP, is set to initiate construction on a new copper mine in the Yilgarn region. This venture is anticipated to attract an investment of approximately $400 million. The mine aims not only to increase copper supply but also to minimize environmental impacts through advanced mining techniques and practices tailored to preserve the surrounding ecosystems.

Additionally, the gold mining sector is witnessing the inception of a state-of-the-art facility aimed at harnessing gold deposits in the Pilbara region. Significant advancements in processing techniques, particularly those utilizing stainless steel structures in the manufacturing process, will enable better efficiency and lower operational costs.

Furthermore, with advancements in technology, projects are increasingly focusing on sustainability, ensuring that metal fabrication and stainless steel use enhance the overall efficiency and safety of mining operations. Overall, 2025 will herald a new era of mining activity in Western Australia, characterized by a diverse array of projects, an influx of investments, and burgeoning technological innovation.

Economic and Environmental Impacts

The upcoming mining construction projects in Western Australia for 2025 are anticipated to play a significant role in bolstering the state’s economy. These projects are expected to create numerous job opportunities, not only within the mining sector but also in associated industries such as transportation, engineering, and fabrication. Specifically, the demand for skilled labor in fields like metal fabrication stainless steel and stainless steel manufacturing will likely rise, promoting local employment and skill development. As businesses ramp up to support these projects, local economies will benefit from increased spending and investment, ultimately contributing to a stronger gross domestic product (GDP) for the state.

Infrastructure development will also be a key component of these mining projects. Enhancements in transportation networks, including roads, railways, and port facilities, will be essential for efficiently moving resources. Such improvements not only facilitate mining operations but also benefit surrounding communities by improving access to services and markets. With the increased demand for materials, the role of steel and stainless steel in construction and machinery will become even more prominent, catalyzing growth in local manufacturing sectors.

However, the economic benefits of such projects come with environmental considerations that must be carefully navigated. Mining activities can have adverse impacts on ecosystems, including land degradation, water resource depletion, and biodiversity loss. It is crucial for mining companies to adopt sustainability measures, including the implementation of efficient waste management practices and rehabilitation projects to mitigate these effects. The challenge lies in striking a balance between driving economic growth and preserving the environment. This delicate equilibrium is essential for ensuring that future generations can enjoy natural resources while benefiting from a thriving economic landscape.

Addressing these multifaceted impacts will require collaboration among government, industry stakeholders, and local communities. By developing comprehensive policies that emphasize both economic and environmental stewardship, Western Australia can optimize the outcomes of its upcoming mining initiatives.

Future Outlook for Mining in Western Australia

The mining industry in Western Australia is poised for significant transformations as it navigates the evolving landscape beyond 2025. As global demand for minerals, including essential metals such as lithium, nickel, and iron ore, continues to rise, Western Australia is strategically positioned to leverage its vast mineral resources. This demand is largely driven by the global transition toward cleaner energy solutions, where materials like lithium are pivotal for battery manufacturing and renewable technologies. Consequently, Western Australia’s mining sector is likely to experience increased investment and expansion initiatives aimed at meeting these evolving market needs.

Technological advancements will play a critical role in shaping the future of mining in Western Australia. With the introduction of automation and smart mining technologies, companies are expected to enhance operational efficiencies, reduce costs, and minimize environmental impact. The integration of robotics and artificial intelligence into mining processes can streamline operations, ensuring the consistent and effective extraction of minerals. Furthermore, innovations in metal fabrication stainless steel processes may present opportunities for producing more durable and efficient machinery, which can ultimately contribute to a more sustainable mining environment.

Regulatory changes also warrant attention, as both state and federal governments are likely to implement updated frameworks to promote sustainability and environmental stewardship in mining practices. As the global community becomes increasingly focused on sustainability, mining operations in Western Australia may be required to adopt greener technologies and practices that align with international climate agreements. Stakeholders must therefore prepare for a landscape where compliance with stringent regulations is crucial for operational licenses and social acceptance.

In conclusion, the future of mining in Western Australia appears promising, underpinned by robust global demand, technological innovations, and evolving regulations that emphasize sustainability. By capitalizing on its resources, embracing advancements in manufacturing technologies, and aligning with environmental expectations, the mining sector can thrive in the years to come.

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CeMAT Singapore – 2025’s Leading Destination

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CeMAT Australia is one of the first dates circled on the calendar by manufacturers in the intralogistics, robotics and automation, warehousing, supply chain management and materials handling sectors. Their sister event, CeMAT Southeast Asia, has also become a fast favourite with businesses that deal extensively with our near neighbours to the north, with 2024’s edition the most popular yet among those that travelled to Singapore. The good news is that the event is returning for 2025 in the same location, going for a second year straight in Singapore after previously using Mumbai and Jakarta as locations. The event will be held at Singapore EXPO from 19-21 May 2025, with registration for exhibitor stands now open.

According to Mike Nissen, Commercial Director at organisers Hannover Fairs Australia, Singapore is the obvious place for such an important manufacturing meet-up to be held. “Singapore is the hub of logistics in Southeast Asia,” he explained to Industry Update. “It’s the benchmark in automation in intralogistics and supply chain for that region, and while you do have emerging markets like Indonesia, Thailand, Philippines and Vietnam they generally look to Singapore. You’ll find a lot of the APAC headquarters for the large integrators and supply chain suppliers in Singapore.” Singapore is one of Australia’s major trading partners, a nation known for its ease of doing business and, crucially, a favourite with our steel fabrication Australia sector going back decades. “Australia generally has very good trade relations with a lot of those Southeast Asian countries,” said Nissen.

For Singapore, in particular, Australia has a long history of free trade agreements. CeMAT Singapore was very well received in 2024 at our first show there. “We had about 7000 visitors, but it was the quality of visitor that attended the event that stood out – we had a lot of what we call our tier one exhibitors. They were suitably impressed; they supported the event and so it’s here to stay.” CeMAT Singapore presents a chance for Australian manufacturers to interact with the huge Chinese sector that is increasingly making things in Southeast Asia and to learn about the huge advances in AI adoption in supply chain management that are taking place in the region. “You’ve got this burgeoning trend where China is looking to manufacture outside of their borders, and Southeast Asia is one of their key markets,” said Nissen.

“The whole supply chain and logistics side is also upskilling to go with that, with automation coming in. Where once that would have been factory or warehouse workers, now it is automation and robotics. The critical point, particularly with Southeast Asia and especially Singapore, is space. Whether it be manufacturing, warehousing or mining plant and equipment Australia, space is a considerable issue. Australia, for example, is rather urbanized, but Southeast Asian countries and cities are incredibly densely populated and require maximum space utilisation. That’s where I think the automation side in this tighter space is really coming into fruition. It’s an opportunity to use space to the maximum. There’s AI-backed technology that will get into every centimetre of a facility space and make sure that efficiency is 100%. Another aspect is the cold chain. Being Equatorial countries, there are goods like in pharmaceuticals and Food & Beverage that need temperature-controlled environments.” said Nissen.

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Defence Manufacturer Celebrates $100 mn Deal

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Defence manufacturer Thales Australia has started the new year in style with the announcement of a $100 mn deal to produce extra tanks for the Australian Defence Forces, removing redundancy threats to staff. The Bendigo-based defence firm will deliver 40 new Bushmaster Protected Mobility Vehicles (PMV) – which have been used extensively in Ukraine – on top of a previous order of 130 that have been manufactured in the last 24 months. The deal is a major turnaround for Thales, who were in danger of winding up their Victorian plant after a horror few years that saw them struggling for steel fabrication Australia orders in 2022 and subsequently embroiled in a corruption scandal.

“The Bushmaster vehicles will contribute to the acceleration of a land-based long-range strike capability for the Army, demonstrating a commitment to modernising the Australian Defence Force and enhancing metal fabrication in warfare,” said Pat Conroy, Minister for Defence Industry and Capability Delivery. “We need to deter anyone who has any thought of threatening Australia. The best way of doing that is to let them know we have the weapons and knowhow like heat induction bending services to strike back. It’s the best armoured truck in the world. We’ve seen it save lives in the Middle East and it’s saving lives in Ukraine right now.”

“We’re expanding the Australian Army and equipping it with long-range strike capability. We’re moving the army from having a range of 40km to having a range of over 500km. We’re rapidly building up our missile stockpiles and expanding our Australian Army.” The announcement removes uncertainty over 250 skilled regional jobs, which will now be protected through to 2026. “This additional investment will support hundreds of jobs, underscoring the Albanese Government’s commitment not only to the people of the Bendigo region but to continue building on the positive outlook for Australian manufacturing.,” said Conroy.

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Funding Delivered on Australia Manufacturing Investment

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Australia’s manufacturing industry is already starting to see the benefits of increased funding to the sector with the Government announcing that $26 million of distributions have already been made from the $400m Industry Growth Program. Minister for Industry and Science Ed Husic released a rundown of the recipient manufacturing businesses, which run the gamut from high tech industries such as robotics and medical manufacturing to more traditional sectors such as agriculture and defence. Distributions ranged from amounts in the multimillion dollars, such as the $4.3m given to Cauldron Molecules, a biomanufacturing firm dealing in animal feed, to smaller numbers such as the $231,000 given to cybersecurity firm Brandsec.

Most recently, funding was released to the Advanced Manufacturing Growth Centre (AMGC) and Ausbiotech, both industry bodies entrusted with allocating funding to individual businesses such as mining plant and equipment Australia. “It’s terrific to mark this milestone and see vital funding out the door and onto the factory floor of these terrific Aussie businesses, ensuring more things are made right here,” said the Minister. “I’m pleased to see AMGC and Ausbiotech join the IGP stable of Industry Partner Organisations, with their expertise supporting Aussie manufacturers to realise their potential. We’re serious about backing local know-how, that’s why we’re ensuring growing businesses have the support they need to increase our manufacturing capability and leverage the benefits offered by local steel companies in Australia.”

Grants are given through two streams: one aimed at start-ups and one at more established heavy steel fabrication companies. The Early-Stage Commercialisation grants will match funding already raised to the value of $250,000 to help new manufacturing businesses to get off the ground, while the Commercialisation and Growth grants strand looks to help already existing companies to create prototypes and ultimately get products to market.

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WA Government Announces New Wind Energy Manufacturing Subsidy

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The Western Australian Government has announced a collaboration with the Advanced Manufacturing Growth Centre (AMGC) that will offer heavy steel fabrication companies subsidies to create wind energy infrastructure. The new Wind Energy Manufacturing Co-Investment Program will offer support of up to $8 million of investment to projects in the sustainable energy manufacturing sector in WA, with up to 50% of project costs eligible to be covered. Wind tower foundations, anchor cages, nacelle components and assembly, transmission poles and specialised trailers (transport) are to be prioritised by the scheme, as well as related infrastructure around supply chains and maintenance. It will be split into two streams: one for new projects seeking and one for pre-existing projects in need of growth funding.

The market entry stream will focus on capability development, with indicative project sizes ranging from $20K to $60K (co-investment contribution $10K to $30K). The market growth stream will focus on capacity and capability enhancement, with indicative project sizes ranging from $500K to $1 million (co-investment contribution $250K to $500K). Initially the program is focused on areas where the State has translatable skills and capability including: anchor cages, nacelle components, tower foundations and assembly, transmission poles, specialised trailers (transport). The program also aims to upskill local businesses with appropriate accreditations to operate within the wind energy supply chain and build capacity related to replacement parts and servicing. As part of the MoU signed for Queensland wind farms, projects related to other wind manufacturing areas may be considered.

“The Wind Energy Manufacturing Co-Investment Program is a testament to our commitment to creating a sustainable future for Western Australia and adhering to the Future Made in Australia Act,” said Stephen Dawson, Science Minister in the WA Government. Supporting local businesses to engage in wind energy supply chains positions the State to reap the benefits of the energy transition while also supporting our economic diversification. “The co-investment program is designed to provide support to businesses at different stages of their journey. Whether it’s helping new businesses to upgrade their accreditations or assisting companies to pivot or scale their operations, this funding will play a crucial role in enhancing our State’s advanced manufacturing capabilities.”

Advanced Manufacturing Growth Centre Managing Director, Dr Jens Goennemann added that the deal was good news for the local wind energy sector. “Western Australia is home to very skilled manufacturers currently engaging in the mining plant and equipment Australia, minerals and energy space,” he said. “The Wind Energy Manufacturing Co-Investment Program will focus on identifying local capabilities that can be turned towards opportunities in wind energy generation. In doing so, the WA Government and manufacturers will develop a broader and more capable manufacturing base while serving domestic renewable energy needs.”

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Boost for Western Sydney Manufacturing

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Western Sydney’s manufacturing industry is already one of the strongest in Australia – and it received a major boost last week with the completion of the first project out the new Advanced Manufacturing Readiness Facility (AMRF) in Bradfield. The new innovation hub, which is funded by the NSW Government, completed a job with Emu Plains-based cooling tower experts Marley Flow, who came to the AMRF to streamline manufacturing processes (e.g., pipe fabrication Australia) within their business. They managed to improve operational efficiency and, as a result, may now be able to gain six times the productivity of the business and an estimated 15-20% reduction in costs. The project was such a success that Marley Flow are set to go around again, this time with the goal of developing and designing new products for market.

According to the government, the AMRF is a cornerstone of Bradfield City Centre’s economic strategy, aiming to create high-value jobs and leverage the $20 billion worth of government infrastructure invested in the Aerotropolis. The facility will focus on cutting-edge manufacturing support, from engineering design to heat induction bending services, connecting businesses with expertise, advanced technology, and networks to scale their operations. Sustainability has been embedded into the First Building’s design. Featuring natural materials, a green roof with biodiverse native plantings, and internal rammed earth walls, the building sets a benchmark for sustainable urban development. Its design, co-developed by Hassell Studio and Dr. Danièle Hromek from Djinjama, incorporates principles of connecting and designing with Country.

“Marley Flow Control is excited to collaborate with the Advanced Manufacturing Readiness Facility (AMRF) on the first project,” said CEO Gareth Jones. “Working with the AMRF, tapping into their engineering expertise and expert knowledge to improve our manufacturing processes and ways of working, will enable us to increase productivity and reduce costs. Simple changes could make a massive difference to our operations. We see this as the beginning of a long partnership with the AMRF to help develop our product offering. Along with TAFE Manufacturing Centre of Excellence, we’re proud to be one of the first to access this world-class manufacturing development centre right here in Western Sydney.”

It was a superb start for what should be an enduring addition to manufacturing in Sydney’s West. “The AMRF is a NSW Government strategy to accelerate innovation and grow businesses in Western Sydney and we’re delighted to announce the completion of our first project,” said Bradfield Development Authority CEO, Ken Morrison. “Western Sydney is home to one of the largest concentrations of manufacturing businesses in Australia and the AMRF is a resource to support them innovate, grow and provide more jobs. With the AMRF, it is an exciting opportunity to leverage the benefits of homegrown manufacturers and to transition to new ways of doing business or create high value components for the next generation of advanced technologies.”

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Australian Manufacturing Gets Big Boost

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The economic outlook for manufacturing might be looking up after two key indicator reports suggested that the Australian economy has turned a corner. It appears that the positive outlook for Australian manufacturing is close to being realized. Westpac’s consumer confidence sentiments insights suggested that Aussies are increasingly looking to spend, with a 5.3% rise in confidence in November, news that was compounded by NAB’s business confidence equivalent, which also saw a rise. Though the commercial outlook was not quite as strong as the consumer version, both were marked improvements on previous months and backed up a wider feeling that Australia’s period in the economic doldrums might be coming to an end. Manufacturing and mining plant and equipment Australia specifically continue to lag the wider economy, with forward orders a particular pain point, but even within that, the prospects were still improved on what they have been in recent months, suggesting a positive momentum.

Creditorwatch analysed the data for Industry Update, with Chief Economist Ivan Colhoun suggesting that, while not completely out of the woods, there were reasons to think that the long-term lag might be about to come to an end. “It’s probably getting close for Australian manufacturing,” he said. “Lower interest rates would help house construction further, though that does not look likely until the first half of next year. “Negative forward orders mean more heavy steel fabrication companies are reporting a drop in orders than are reporting an increase. A smaller negative means that there are still more firms reporting deteriorating orders than improving orders, so it is still not great. But it may be suggesting we are getting close to the low point for the manufacturing cycle. I suspect the beginnings of an improvement in building approvals is helpful as the house construction sector is important for many Australian manufacturing processes.”

Notably, manufacturing was singled out as an area where the performance of the sector in Australia was likely to be most heavily impacted by global conditions rather than more localised issues. The jobs data, according to Colhoun, was even more difficult to parse. “I think the problem is very similar across the globe, due to the common shocks being experienced,” he said. “High interest rates and some pull forward of spending on manufactured goods during COVID. Improved post-pandemic supply chains are likely to also be allowing more import competition. This is well reported to be affecting the steel sector. I do not have a good explanation for the plunge in unemployment expectations – it does look somewhat unusual and runs contrary to the trend in job advertisements which fell again in October after several broadly steady months.”

“At face value, it says consumers are more optimistic about their job prospects. It is not clear why they think that. Are they feeling generally more positive about the economy because of income tax cuts? Probably. This might mean they extrapolate this to a better job market. As before, there is not a confirming signal yet from job advertisements. Regarding manufacturing’s staffing troubles, traditional blue-collar occupations, along with healthcare and social assistance, continue to report staffing issues, while traditional white-collar professions have less problems sourcing staff. However, the outlook is optimistic with news like ARB’s expansion creating manufacturing jobs. As job ads slowly drop, this should loosen up the labour market with some benefit to manufacturing, however, the government’s tightening of immigration and student numbers will tend to work in the other direction, unfortunately.”

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Impact of Trump Presidency on Australian Manufacturing

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Australian manufacturing is still reacting to Donald Trump’s victory in the US Presidential election as fears around the effect that economic protectionism may have on Australia’s export business with the United States. The first Trump presidency saw the imposition of tariffs on many imported goods and, as a knock-on effect, a trade war with China. For Aussies, that had the double effect of making it more expensive to do business in America while also impacting exports to China, which saw our nation caught in the middle. Industry Update spoke to Innes Willox, Chief Executive of the Australian Industry Group – and a former Australian Consul in Los Angeles – to learn what the manufacturing sector should expect from the next four years.

“He’s clearly now got a mandate to perform radical change within the United States, particularly around job creation and energy,” said Willox. “That has the capacity to be quite transformative, if not seismic – not just for the American economy, but the global economy. As Treasurer Jim Chalmers has said, steel fabrication Australia has got more at stake here than most. In fact, probably more than anybody else, given our economic and security relationship with the United States, but our very, very strong economic relationship with China as well. The first question is: what he will do with the Inflation Reduction Act? Will he wind it back, will he dismantle it or will he retain it? It is not clear exactly what he will do, but I think we can expect some action there towards winding at least parts of it back. How he does that we are just going to have to wait and see, but he has made it very clear that he wants to rebalance the future between renewable energy and new trends in oil and gas, which will have consequences for us here.”

The last Trump presidency saw Australia strike a delicate balance between China and America, and Willox suggested that the current Government would have to find that sweet spot again. “There was always the risk with the first Trump Administration that Australia is going to be collateral damage in the trade war between the US and China, given the fact that we are heavily reliant on both economies for our economic prosperity and our national security, particularly with the United States,” he said. “The worst-case scenario for Australia is that we will be forced to pick sides in that trade dispute. That would have enormously damaging consequences for Australia, even though we are increasingly self-reliant with the application of the Future Made in Australia Act. We have a very broad trading relationship with the United States, given that the Free Trade Agreement has been in place for 20 years, but we also have a deep and connected relationship with China both as a supplier and as a market for our goods.”

“It would be an impossible position for us to be forced to choose. We would have to completely recalibrate our economy, and that would be incredibly difficult. The first priority for the government has to be to make sure that we are exempted from tariffs that the Trump administration is going to impose. We have our free trade agreement to fall back on here, but during the last Administration, we came perilously close to having tariffs on our steel products imposed by Trump similar to earlier US steel tariffs based on carbon emissions. We really just avoided that by a whisker. It took a lot of work from a lot of people to get an exemption in place for our steel products. We should expect to go through that scenario again on various goods, where the economic relationship, entwined with the security relationship, will be tested. We have a lot of history, a lot of strong mutual ties and relationships to fall back on, and there is an understanding of the history of the relationship within Washington.”

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